Outsider Status Turns Against Trump, Sanders
A new column suggests that the insurgent nature of the candidacies of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders is turning against them. While this was a big part of their rise in popularity, that they were outside of the establishment political class, it may now be working against them.
Experienced political personalities like Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz know more about how the electoral sausage is made, running campaigns aimed at scoring the most delegates if not the most popular votes. Those delegates, after all, are the ones who elect the nominees.
“There’s a reason why you don’t go total outsider — because at the end of the day, it’s the establishment who writes the rules,” a GOP strategist who worked on John McCain’s campaign said. “This lust for outsider politics requires insiders.”
The Hill reports:
That’s a tough game for both Trump and Sanders.
The Vermont senator isn’t even a member of the Democratic Party, though his staff includes longtime strategists with national campaign experience.
Trump might face an even bigger challenge. His lean campaign, until recently, hasn’t included many seasoned political professionals. Trump has also eschewed party loyalty for most of his career in favor of bipartisan donations and positions across the political spectrum.
Cruz has been winning the hand-to-hand fight for delegates. Over the weekend in Colorado, he swept all 34 delegates with a robust, well-organized strategy. The Texas senator personally spoke to the state convention delegates themselves.
Trump didn’t put his resources behind winning Colorado, baffling some observers.
“That’s one of the things that makes trying to figure out his campaign so challenging,” GOP strategist and former Republican National Committee aide Doug Heye told The Hill. “In theory, he has unlimited resources, but he’s been reluctant to use those resources.”
Trump has sought to use the Colorado results to his advantage, arguing that party insiders are working with Cruz to steal the nomination from his supporters.
“The people out there are going crazy, in the Denver area and Colorado itself, and they’re going absolutely crazy because they weren’t given a vote; this was given by politicians. It’s a crooked deal,” Trump said Monday on “Fox and Friends.”
The rhetoric has worked for Trump in the past by helping him surf a wave of discontent with the GOP establishment, which has been building for years. But at this point in the campaign, Trump may need more than rhetoric to close the deal on the nomination.
The Colorado situation was far from the first time that Trump has been felled by his own hand when it comes to wooing delegates.
While the Republican Party binds delegates to vote for certain candidates depending on state primary or caucus results on the party’s first ballot, states have different rules about how long those delegates must stay loyal in a contested convention.
In many cases, delegates are free to choose any candidate after the first ballot, making it more imperative that candidates lock up the individual loyalties of delegates.
With their eyes on those rules, Cruz has mounted successful efforts to win loyalties from a handful of delegates in states like Louisiana, Tennessee and South Carolina — all states Trump won.
Sanders isn’t in the same boat as Trump, who leads GOP candidates in votes.
Sanders instead has received fewer votes than Clinton and chose not to compete in the South, where she built her delegate lead.
Still, the use of superdelegates to choose the Democratic nominee gives Clinton a built-in advantage over Sanders. She has 469 superdelegates, according to The Associated Press, while Sanders has 31 in his corner.
“He can rail against the system all he wants, but unfortunately for him, he’s never participated in it,” Democratic strategist Jim Manley said of Sanders.
“If the [pledged] delegate totals would have been closer, he may be in a better position to try to persuade some superdelegates to switch over. But based on the totals now, there’s no reason to switch.”
Supporters of both Trump and Sanders have used the rules to cry foul. Trump himself retweeted a video of a supporter burning his GOP voter registration in a tweet that argued, “Great people [are] being disenfranchised by politicians.”
And Sanders supporters have launched petitions arguing that superdelegates should follow the results in their states — a move that would shrink Clinton’s gap but still leave her up by a considerable amount.
Strategists say the problems Trump and Sanders now face were predictable.
“People like Bernie Sanders, but he hasn’t been someone known to help to do party building, in the same way that while Donald Trump has been a donor and all sorts of things, he hasn’t been a Republican Party guy,” said Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons, who served on Al Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign.
“It’s a challenge for both of them, and the challenge always has been that they have to show such overwhelming electoral strength with voters that the institutional players would come around.”