We're a hawk on the issues.

Nate Silver: Trump Would Likely Win If Election Were Held Today

Polling guru Nate Silver said on Monday that Donald Trump would win an election if it were held today.

The Hill reports:

Trump now leads presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, 57.5 percent to 42.5 percent, in that scenario, according to Silver’s website, FiveThirtyEight.

FiveThirtyEight has Clinton besting Trump this November in two other prediction samples, however.

It has Clinton’s odds at 53.7 percent, to Trump’s 46.2 percent, when it discounts polls taken immediately after last week’s Republican National Convention.

Clinton’s odds rise to 58.2 percent to Trump’s 41.7 percent when factoring in economic and historical data.

FiveThirtyEight said it forecasts win probabilities by simulating the election 20,000 times, producing a distribution of possible outcomes for every state nationwide.

Photo credit: Raw Conservative.

About the author