GOP Takes Lead in Midterm Poll as Obama Drags Down Democrats
Following the October government shutdown, it looked as though the Democrats were well on their way to a big swing in the 2014 midterm elections. The problems plaguing the Obamacare launch, however, have resulted in a massive 13-point swing in the polls and the GOP has pulled well ahead of the Democrats in the latest CNN midterm poll.
According to the latest survey, Republicans lead the Democrats 49-44 in the generic congressional poll. Just a month ago, the Democrats led by 2 percent and two months ago they pulled ahead by a margin of 50-42. That’s a massive swing and one that’s clearly linked to public outcry over the Healthcare.gov launch, canceled insurance policies, and premium increases.
Among those surveyed, 55 percent said they would prefer to vote for a candidate who opposes the President and only 40 percent said they’d vote for a candidate who supports Obama.
Worse, voter turnout looks like it will be a big issue for the Democrats. Elections are nothing if not a game of getting the most voters from your party to the polls. Midterm elections always have far less turnout than when a presidential vote in on the ballot to begin with but only 30 percent of registered voters said they are enthusiastic about voting next year. Meanwhile, 43 percent said they are not enthusiastic. Democrats are especially unenthusiastic with just 22 percent of Dems saying they are enthusiastic about voting next year, compared to 36 percent of Republicans.
Interestingly, almost the entire swing has been among male voters. In October, 54 percent of women polled said they would vote for a Democratic candidate. This month, that number is still 53 percent. On the other hand, 46 percent of men said they would vote for a Democratic candidate in October, down to just 35 percent in December.
The Democrats certainly still have a lot of time to turn the ship around, and we’ve just seen how quickly a huge swing in the polls can happen. On the other hand, the longer the media regurgitates the problems plaguing Obamacare, the tougher it will be for Democrats running for Senate and House seats to shed the negative voter perception.
(Image courtesy of nordique)