Forget Swing States, Hillary Could Turn Red States Blue
Most elections are decided by a select few swing states. If the current 2016 polling trends continue, however, Hillary Clinton might not just win most swing states, she may even win some Republican strongholds like Louisiana.
According to a new PPP poll, Hillary Clinton only trails the major Republican candidates by a few percentage points in Louisiana and is certainly within striking distance of taking a lead depending on who the Republican nominee will be.
Not only is Louisiana a red state, lately it’s been as deep red as a state can get. Barack Obama failed to earn more than 40 percent of the vote in the Bayou State in both of his elections and the state hasn’t gone for a Democrat since Bill Clinton, the former governor of neighboring Arkansas, carried the state in 1996.
According to the poll, Clinton trails New Jersey Governor Chris Christie by just one point, 44-43. Even against Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, the former Secretary of State trails by just two points, 47-45. That’s not much of a homefield advantage.
The other major candidates are polling a bit better but are certainly within reach. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul leads the former New York Senator by a margin of 47-43. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has a 49-44 lead on the former First Lady. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is in the best position to win the state, should he earn the nomination, leading Clinton by a 50-43 margin.
Ultimately, Clinton’s chances to win Louisiana rest on how many women voters turn out for the election. She leads every candidate except for Bush among women. Although Bush has a 48-45 lead among female voters, Hillary leads Mike Huckabee 46-45, Rand Paul 46-44, Bobby Jindal 47-44, and Chris Christie 48-39.
Similarly, we’ve seen Clinton take a significant lead over the major GOP candidates in the red state of North Carolina. Although Obama carried North Carolina in 2008, the state has gone for Republicans in every other election since 1976.
Historically, only Republican candidates have been able to pull off huge landslides where they carry the oppositions strongholds but Clinton may just have the support to turn parts of the conservative south blue.
(Image courtesy of Utenriksdept)